New US TV Comedy Show – US Centers for Disease Control & Its Disease Estimates

To help you remember to make sure anyone you dislike should be pressured into getting the ‘flu shot, read this:

Piers Morgan Very Sick Days After USA TV Flu Shot Stunt Backfires – Piers Told “Don’t Ever Take A Flu Shot Again”

Having been caught claiming without foundation that its estimates show flu causes 36,000 US deaths annually [when a gross fabrication] it looks like the US Centers for Disease Control has changed tack.  The CDC seems to have stopped pushing in the media overall deaths from its news releases to bolster its claim Americans need flu vaccine and moved on to use less easily publicly checkable figures.  That includes cherry-picking alleged child deaths “reported to the CDC” and claiming they were from flu – 169 deaths in a population of 314 million souls.

In comparison:

Conventional Medicine – #1 Leading Cause of Death In USA

USA’s 4th Leading Cause of Death – Pharma’s Drugs.

The CDC was officially castigated by the US Senate in an official report CDC Off Centeras an agency which “cannot demonstrate it is controlling disease“  but which was managing to spend US$11 billion in US tax dollars every year not doing what even its name says it is supposed to – Center for Disease Control.

Check out the smiling faces paid for by US tax dollars $$$$$ of CDC Director Thomas Frieden, MD, MPH and Anne Schuchat, MD, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases in this summary news report of the recent CDC flu “news”:

CDC: Flu vaccine prevented 6.6 million illnesses last season Healio.com

And here are the US CDC’s figures:

Estimated Influenza Illnesses and Hospitalizations Averted by Influenza Vaccination — United States, 2012–13 Influenza Season December 13, 2013 /  CDC. MMWR2013;62(49):997-1000

And this to remind you what a great purchase you make when you get a flu shot especially if you were given it “free”:

Australia Bans Flu Vaccine – Child In Coma – Many Hospitalised

Children Get Narcolepsy From Flu Vaccine – Confirmed in British Medical Journal

Most UK Medics Refusing Flu Vaccines – UK’s New Chief Medical Officer Resorts To Bullying

US Drug Company Released Deadly Virus In EU In Vaccine

New Flu Risk From Vaccine – “a very effective way to spread flu” – New Nasal Spray Vaccine

Children Risk Untested Flu Vaccines In Hyped Pandemic

“Children to Die” – Latest Flu Scaremongering

UK Fakes Flu Death Numbers

World Pandemic Health News Round-Up

Swine ‘Flu Jokes

“Don’t give children flu jab” says chief medical officer

US Docs “Children to Die” In Flu Non-Pandemic

EU Takes Emergency Measures Over Glaxo’s ‘Flu Vaccine – Causes Narcolepsy in Children

New Study – Flu Vaccine Doesn’t Work

CBS News Investigation – Forced Swine Flu Vaccination Under Obama’s “National Emergency” Based on Wildly Exaggerated Statistics

Australian Government Dumps On Sick Kids Injured by ‘Flu Vaccine

Flu Vaccine Caused 3587 US Miscarriages & Stillbirths

Flu Vaccine Cripples Healthy US Cheerleader for Life

EU And Canada Flu Vaccine Ban – Not Reported By Press

Now UK Recalls Another Novartis Flu Vaccine – Agrippal – Recall Follows EU and Canadian Bans of Agriflu and Fluad Flu Vaccines

EU Flu Vaccine Bans Still Unreported – Medics Sick After Vaccine Refuse More

New York Times – Flu Vaccine Does Not Work – Yet More Research Says

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US Centers for Disease Control Caught Misleading About Disease [Yet Again – Yawn]?

An astute reader has noticed the following seemingly grossly false claims by the US Centers for Disease Control [‘CDC’] – which looks a little like vastly exaggerating the threat measles as a disease poses?

According to the US CDC there are 100 times or 20 million more cases of measles than the WHO reports for the entire world.  And according to the US CDC there are 100 times more deaths from measles [or 162,000 more deaths] than would be expected if relying on figures for a developed country cited by other governments [like the UK Department of Health].

Is this credible? For examples of how governments fake disease statistics to be orders of magnitude higher than the real numbers see Numberwang! Governments Fake Flu and Measles Death Estimates

So how reliable are these figures?

US CDC Figures:

Worldwide, there are estimated to be 20 million cases and 164,000 deaths each year.”

Overview of Measles Disease

Or put another way, the US CDC are alleging the case fatality rate worldwide for measles is 1 person dies in every 122 unvaccinated individuals who catch the disease.

Compare World Health Organisation [WHO] Figures:

Total 2012 worldwide reported measles cases = 226,722.

SOURCE: WHO published Measles reported cases Last update: 20-Oct-2013 (data as of 16-Oct-2013).

Compare Measles Case Fatality Rates England 1960:

The UK Department of Health gave out these figures:

“Death after measles – 1 in 25000″ [sic] “to 1 in 5000 depending on age
Miller CL. Deaths from measles in England and Wales, 1970-83. British Medical Journal. 1985; 290:443-4.”

[And the Miller paper the UK’s DoH cites is based on 1960s figures – and case fatality rates have fallen dramatically since the 1960s]

Compare Case Fatality Rates England 1993-2008:

Data from the Health Protection Agency shows there have been 76,000 reported cases of measles in the UK since 1992 and no deaths in adults or healthy children from acute measles. There was one death in a 14 year old on immunosuppressant drugs for a lung condition and one in an immunocompromised child [according to the HPA] since 1992.  That gives a chance of nil deaths per annum in healthy children since 1992 over the entire population of England and Wales – which is roughly 55 million – give or take – such as for annual fluctuations etc.  Alternatively the measles case fatality rate is nil for healthy children or 1 in 38,000 when the seriously immunocompromised are included.

Prior to 2006, the last death from acute measles was in 1992.”

…….

“In 2006 there was one measles death in a 13 years old male who had an underlying lung condition and was taking immunosuppressive drugs. Another death in 2008 was also due to acute measles in unvaccinated child with congenital immunodeficiency whose condition did not require treatment with immunoglobulin.  “

http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1195733835814

According to the Office for National Statistics, the 2008 death is now doubted to have been a measles death.

So the point for anxious parents in the UK being brow-beaten to vaccinate their children is – the chance of their child developing an autistic condition is 1 in 60 and the chance of their child dying from measles if they catch measles if not vaccinated is nil for healthy children [or 1 in 38,000 if the relatively very few very very sick individuals are included].

But of course that is the measles case fatality rate – the rate in individuals who contract the infection.  A large proportion may not catch measles either because they are immune or because they just did not become infected.

The risk of mortality to all children who have not previously contracted measles is what parents need to know – that is the risk to every child and not just those who catch measles – and in developed nations that is far lower.  Only a proportion of the population contract the disease.  [So watch out for measles case fatality rates as they give a distorted idea of the true risk.]

People are extremely bad at assessing risk and overcompensate for negative outcomes.  And in the UK around 600,000 individuals die every year.  British children and adults are at risk from road and other accidents, all sorts of other illnesses, old age and many other causes.  With no deaths in healthy individuals from acute measles and three deaths in very sick individuals since 1992 in England or Wales, the risk of anyone in a year dying from measles has fallen to well below 1 in 55 million overall population figure.

LATEST: Far East Killer Vaccine – 100k+ Deaths Diverting $ From Clean Water Programmes

The proposal to vaccinate 25 million babies in India annually may prevent 175 deaths from Hib meningitis in 5 years.  The lives of 175 children are important.  In resource impoverished areas, money spent on vaccinating 25 million babies could be spent on programmes for providing safe water.  These programmes will save many hundreds of thousand lives.  Leaving such considerations aside, the incidence of invasive Hib disease is low in India which also makes it difficult to justify introducing Hib vaccination. Additionally, the WHO has also been promoting a new form of Hib vaccine which has caused deaths in a large number of children. The WHO vaccine has also increased the price of DPT 30 fold.

In India 21 have so far died, in a limited experiment with the vaccine, and last week the Vietnam Government Drug Regulatory authority stopped the new form of vaccine – a Pentavalent vaccine – being used in Vietnam after 9 deaths.

The new vaccine was introduced because vaccine uptake for the previous vaccine has been poor.  The new vaccine is a combination vaccine; a Pentavalent vaccine.  This vaccine combines Hib and Hepatitis B vaccine with the widely used DPT vaccine. The vaccine is not licensed for use in the West but is promoted in Asia.

A large WHO sponsored study, meticulously done over 2 years (Minz study) found an incidence of Hib meningitis of  7/100000 children under-five.  The figure for a saving of 175 deaths in 5 years is suggested by a mortality of 10%.

Previously reported on CHS:

New Lethal & Unnecessary Vaccine For India & Far East – Which Kills – Promoted On Manufactured Justification

Another Lethal Vaccine Coming Soon To Your Baby – Pushed by Drug Industry – As Vietnam Suspends Five-in-One DTP, Hib & Hep B Vaccine Following 9 Deaths – But 32 Deaths Also In India, Pakistan, Bhutan & Sri Lanka

The present paper and its commentary were published this week in the Indian Journal of Medical Research in this context.

The article by Padmanabhan Ramachandran and colleagues available here suggests:

1.       Hib was found to be the predominant cause of bacterial meningitis in young children.  Hib meningitis was responsible for 58% to 74% of children with abnormalities in the CSF  (brain fluid)

2.       41% in Vellore are immunized against Hib and that is why the proportion of Hib was 58% here compared to 74% elsewhere.

3.       Hib accounted for 70% of bacteriologically confirmed meningitis.

An invited commentary accompanying the article is entitled

Making a case for universal Hib immunization in India: over interpreting the data.”

1.       It shows that the Hib antigen was detected only in 8.75 per cent of patients with an abnormal CSF cytology and not 74% or 58% as suggested in the article.

2.   There were only 7 cases of Hib meningitis in Vellore and one was vaccinated. The incidence of meningitis among those vaccinated in Vellore was not statistically different from those unvaccinated.

3. The Latex agglutination Test (LATS) used by the study to detect cause of meningitis, picks up 93% cases of Hib but only 39% Neisseria meningitides. Thus LATS cannot be used to look at the relative incidence of different causes of meningitis.

Conflict of Interests

The commentary says that one of the authors has a declared conflict of interest. Quoting Als-Nielsen and colleagues the reviewer says such conflict of interests has little impact on the results or data reported but it influenced the interpretation of the results and the conclusions drawn. “The fact that the data are not impacted by conflicts of interest provides persuasive reason to publish the figures from large trials such as this, regardless of the declared conflicts of interests. Publication allows data to be put out in the public domain. It can be interpreted by the scientific community, separately from the interpretations of the authors. Discerning readers and decision makers can use the data provided for health policy, based on sound cost–benefit calculations”

2013 MEASLES NEWS: The UK’s Fake Welsh Measles Epidemic – Only 8 Cases Confirmed For March – 302 Wrongly Diagnosed and “Notified” By Docs

[ED: CHECK OUT UPDATE MEASLES UK 2013 – Health Officials in Tail-Spin Over Vastly Hyped Claims of Welsh Measles Epidemic – BBC Removes False Claims from Website – ADDED 12 May 2013 @ 0400 UTC/00:00 EST/05:00 GMT]

[ED: CHECK OUT COMMENTS AT END FOR LATEST FIGURES FOR APRIL AND DISCUSSION – ADDED 4 May 2013 @ 10:30 UTC/05:30 EST/11:30 GMT]

UPDATE 13/5/13 – April figures:

We stated on May 3, when this article was posted

.. if the figures for April are wildly different, you will know for sure someone is not telling it as it is.”

We were 100% right.

Public Health Wales own figures of confirmed measles cases to the end of March 2013 were 8 for the whole of Wales:

All Wales surveillance of laboratory confirmed infections – CDSC Wales monthly report – Report date: Tue 02 Apr 2013 – Data to end of week: 2013 Week 13

See Table on Page 18 “2013 – Reports of Measles virus by LHB/LA of residence by month (table 2 of 2)”

The figures HPW published in their monthly report to the end of February were also 8 confirmed cases.  By Sunday 14th April the figures reported for March in the weekly reports issued during April totalled 15 for the period to 31 March.  By Tuesday 7th May the March figure was stated to be 22.

Public Health Wales own information also states:

Reported notifications of measles usually far exceed the actual numbers of confirmed cases. Other rashes are often mistaken for measles.”  Measles Public Health Wales Health Protection Division – [accessed & added to CHS 12 May 2013].

But Public Health Wales claimed vastly more laboratory confirmed measles cases than existed in confirmations from their own laboratory and England combined.

To put the following into context in the first three weeks of 1959 there were 41,000 cases reported in England and Wales.  In the British Medical Journal doctors described measles as “mild”: British Medical Journal Tells Us – Measles Is Not The Scary Disease The Press Want You To Think It Is

This is what was put out on British news by Public Health Wales during April 2013:

Chronology of claims of confirmed cases – source ITV News:

Wed 03 Apr 2013 – Last week the number of confirmed cases stood 432 [ED: sic].

That was the number claimed to the end of March.

Fri 05 Apr 2013 – The number of confirmed measles cases in the Swansea area has risen by 47 this week, according to the latest figures from Public Health Wales.  It now stands at 588 – a slight increase from the 541 cases confirmed earlier this week.

And that was just for the Swansea area – one city and surrounding area – not the whole of Wales.

Thu 18 Apr 2013 – Public Health Wales will release the latest figures for the ongoing measles outbreak today. On Tuesday the number of confirmed cases had risen to 765.

Fri 19 Apr 2013 – There are now over 800 confirmed cases in Wales.

Thu 25 Apr 2013 –  Earlier this week the number of confirmed cases of the virus stood at 886 – a rise of 78 new cases since last Thursday.

Sat 27 Apr 2013 – latest figures from Public Health Wales revealed the number of confirmed cases of measles reached 942.

Tue 30 Apr 2013 – The number of measles cases continues to rise and has now reached 1,011, according to figures released today by Public Health Wales.

None of this was true.  Public Health Wales never did have the numbers of cases they were claiming as confirmed.

By 2nd May it was reported confirmed cases for Wales were 370 with 850 tested and with 1,170 notified.  Suddenly the numbers of cases claimed by Public Health Wales as confirmed had fallen by nearly two thirds: MMR vaccination drive targets 43,000 children as measles epidemic spreads Press Association The Guardian, Thursday 2 May 2013.

It is claimed recently some laboratory tests had been sent to England for testing and that the figures were not in Public Health Wales’ own reports.  However, when the February and March figures were published by Health Protection Wales, no qualification to that effect appeared either on the HPW’s website and it does not appear in the reports,  so was thus not being applied to the February and March figures by Public Health Wales.   It appears a more recent claim added to HPW’s website on 9th May.

UPDATE 17 MAY

If HPW’s 9th May claim is correct [that their figures do not include tests carried out in England of Welsh notifications] the one case in Swansea is likely to have been bolstered by one confirmation from an English laboratory – making two confirmed cases in March in Swansea when HPW’s figures for notifications were 181 cases in Swansea and on 26th March HPW claimed 432 cases in the whole of Wales.

It can be seen that less than half of confirmations come from England – as more recent figures issued by HPW show.

The number of tests from England can be seen from HPW’s 2nd May news release stating: “The number of laboratory confirmed cases in the outbreak stands at 370 out of a total of 850 samples tested.” … “Across the whole of Wales the total is 1,170.”   as their latest report published 15th May shows 209 confirmed cases in April. So less than half the tests – 161 appear to have been carried out in England.

And as reported here, their figures to 31st March showed 8 confirmed cases to the end of March for all Wales – 1 in Swansea and two more in the Swansea area.

——-  ******* ——-

NOW FOLLOWS THE ORIGINAL 3RD MAY CHS ARTICLE AS PUBLISHED HERE:

Big Headline – but a very short posting to the links to the official figures just published by Public Health Wales.  You will not believe your eyes – so download them and see for yourself. Links to the full official statistics reports below from Public Health Wales.

If you take any notice of the British press you will know that the “epicenter” of this British epidemic of epic earthquake proportions – is Swansea in Wales UK.  That is where all the fuss is about.

Guess how many cases of measles there really were – no – not the huge numbers  the British media reported.

Public Health Wales figures to the end of March recorded just ONE laboratory confirmed case out of 183 notified cases in March – that is 18,200% over-diagnosed – or put another way – 0.005 of notified measles cases were really measles.  And hey, lots of them have not been vaccinated and they still have not caught measles.  How about that.

[ED’s REQUEST TO READERS: – repost link to this on Facebook, blogs, websites, Twitter, newspaper online comments please & email your families and friends – people are being scammed by health officials and the media – (added: 5/May/2013)

http://wp.me/pfSi7-1Qh].

For the entire period 1 January to March 31, 2013 for the whole of Wales Public Health Wales own reports recorded there were just 26 laboratory confirmed cases out of 446 notifications: 10 in January, 8 in February.  And in March just eight cases out of 302 notifications for the whole of Wales

That is a percentage rate of over-diagnosis and over-notification in March of 3774% or just 0.027 of notified cases were actually measles – and it is medical professionals who do the diagnosing and notifying.  Kind of knocks your faith in the ability of doctors to diagnose a basic childhood illness.  And we must not forget the poor man who died – but no one knows what he died of and three doctors did not diagnose it as measles.

But the British media lapped it up – after all – it was a death and you know how they love to wave the shroud to sell their papers in an ever-dwindling market.  Journalism – a dying profession in more ways than one.

Photos – 7th April 2013 – British Media Report on Massive queues as emergency immunisation centres open in Swansea:

[click on photo for enlarged image in new window]

Swansea1 (10)Swansea1 (5)Swansea1 (12)

And the media hype is exactly the same kind of tosh from public health officials that we saw over SARS, then bird ‘flu, then swine ‘flu.

Now you can see the extent of the scam being run by public health officials in Wales, UK.

Don’t bother buying newspapers or believing the garbage news from the BBC and other TV “journalists”.  These people are just irresponsible.  You cannot trust what they write or broadcast:

An able, disinterested, public-spirited press, with trained intelligence to know the right and courage to do it, can preserve that public virtue without which popular government is a sham and a mockery.”

You can rely on good old CHS because we let you check out the figures here all by yourself.  Compare these two separate official reports – one is laboratory confirmed cases and the other is notifications:

All Wales surveillance of laboratory confirmed infections – CDSC Wales monthly report – Report date: Tue 02 Apr 2013 – Data to end of week: 2013 Week 13

See Table on Page 18 “2013 – Reports of Measles virus by LHB/LA of residence by month (table 2 of 2)”

And compare with this:

All Wales surveillance of notifiable communicable diseases – CDSC Wales monthly report – Report date: Tue 02 Apr 2013 – Data to end of week: 2013 Week 13

See Table on Page 4 “2013 – Notifications of Measles by LHB/LA of residence by month (table 2 of 2)”

BUT: the really interesting bit will be the figures for April. When there is a big panic on stirred up in 66 million people of the UK by just a handful of health officials and the completely useless easily manipulated British media, doctors will be notifying the spots on their tablecloths as measles.  So if the figures for April are wildly different, you will know for sure someone is not telling it as it is.

Let’s wait for the April figures. 

And in ten years time might we be amused by a confession like:

Oh dear, how the janitor when cleaning up accidentally spilled measles virus into all of those negative samples by accident before I tested them, and he did not tell me til yesterday.

So the one case in Swansea from 181 notifications is likely to have been bolstered by another confirmation from an English laboratory – making two confirmed cases in March in Swansea when HPW were claiming 181 cases notified and claiming to the public there were 432 cases in the whole of Wales.

Official Data Confirms – 20th Century Measles Deaths Would Fall Exponentially – And Regardless of Measles Or MMR Vaccine

A peer reviewed medical paper cited in the CHS article Vaccines Did Not Save Us – 2 Centuries Of Official Statistics confirms that “Measles mortality rates were inversely related to median family income”: Englehandt SF, Halsey NA, Eddins DL, Hinman AR. Measles mortality in the United States 1971-1975. Am J Public Health 1980;70:1166–1169.

In simple terms that means as people become better off year on year, measles mortality could be expected to keep on falling.

The following graph supporting that conclusion already appears on CHS covering the 20th Century – from 1901 to 1999: see Vaccines Did Not Save Us – 2 Centuries Of Official Statistics

[CLICK ON GRAPH TO ENLARGE IN NEW TAB/WINDOW]

<big>Measles Mortality England & Wales 1901 to 1999

The red trendline is exponential.  It is created using the trendline function in professional commercially available software.  As can be seen 2007 is the year when the trendline cuts below a chance of there being one death per annum in England and Wales, based on a population of 55 million.

What a straight line exponential trendline on a logarithmic graph demonstrates is that the fall in measles mortality over the 100 years of the last century has been exponential.

In simple terms this means the rate of fall in mortality has been like throwing something off a cliff and watching it go faster and faster and get smaller and smaller as time passes until you can hardly see it at all.

And particularly, the fact that an exponential trendline results in a straightline is an immensely strong indication that measles mortality would continue to fall exponentially irrespective of the introduction of vaccines.

If we look at the standard “analogue” plotted graph, as in the example immediately below, we might be able to use our judgement and decide in our opinion the vaccine made little or no difference:

[Click Graph to Enlarge – Opens In New Window]

Measles Mortality England & Wales 1901 to 1999 - Analog Scale

But is there any way we might be able to tell more precisely whether vaccines had any effect?  Or to put it another way, what is the position for the trend ignoring when any measles vaccine was in routine use?

So here is the same ONS data but plotted only up to 1967 – before the introduction of the measles vaccine – and with the trendline plotted forward to where the chance of mortality falls below 1 in 55 million. 

Putting it simply this graph immediately below shows the rate of decline of mortality prior to 1968 and what might be the position after 1967 if things carried on as they were.  So data for the years 1968 to 1999 are excluded. 

Or the more complicated explanation: by eliminating data after 1967 from the graph the trendline should show the trend unaffected by any potential effect [confounding] by a measles virus containing vaccine affecting the natural rate of decrease in measles mortality associated with natural measles infection.  It is intended to show the likely trend from 1967 for the future, on the assumption the same rate of fall before 1968 applied after 1967.  [And we can check because we have the entire data set pre 1968 and post 1967 to do the comparison.]

[CLICK ON GRAPH TO ENLARGE IN NEW TAB/WINDOW].
Measles Mortality ONS Data 1901-1967

Again, we still see that the year 2007 is the point at which the probability of mortality from measles infection falls below one in 55 million per annum.  This is just as the graph for the data from 1901-1999 does.  This seems to suggest strongly that not only did measles mortality fall exponentially before the introduction of the single measles vaccine, it continued to fall exponentially and at the same rate after – even with the position up to 1999 it might seem.

Data from the Health Protection Agency shows there have been 76,000 reported cases of measles in the UK since 1992 and no deaths in adults or healthy children from acute measles. There was one death in a 14 year old on immunosuppressant drugs for a lung condition and one in an immunocompromised child [according to the HPA] since 1992.  That gives a chance of nil deaths per annum in healthy children since 1992 over the entire population of England and Wales – which is roughly 55 million – give or take – such as for annual fluctuations etc and 0.1 deaths per annum in immunocompromised children.

Prior to 2006, the last death from acute measles was in 1992.”

…….

“In 2006 there was one measles death in a 13 years old male who had an underlying lung condition and was taking immunosuppressive drugs. Another death in 2008 was also due to acute measles in unvaccinated child with congenital immunodeficiency whose condition did not require treatment with immunoglobulin.  “

http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1195733835814

According to the Office for National Statistics, the 2008 death is now doubted to have been a measles death.

Regardless of these two deaths in over 20 years, the trendline on both graphs presents a fairly reliable picture showing the chance of measles mortality falling below 1 in 55 million per annum, if there were no vaccination. And we can see that by 2007 actual mortality is in line with the trend shown by the graphs.

As UK measles vaccine coverage was well below 55% in the 1970′s and early 1980s what these graphs show is not unexpected.  It is claimed now that the level of vaccination coverage required to achieve the theoretical concept of herd immunity is 95%.  So any lower rate of vaccination clearly was not achieving that so according to that theory, the disease would still circulate and it clearly did.

The average UK mortality between 1968 [when the single measles vaccine was introduced into the UK] and 1987 was 20 and not hundreds and was falling over that entire period at the same rate exponentially as it had been before 1968.  So we can be reasonably sure mortality would certainly be expected to be well below that level as time passed – and that is what these graphs and the trendlines confirm.

Trendlines do not predict but give an indication of what might be the position.  In the case of the comparison between the trend for data to 1967 and compared to the trend to 1999 can we have a reasonable degree of confidence 2007 is likely to be the year the chance of a death in England and Wales would fall below 1 [ie below 100%] if there were no measles vaccines.

What we can also say with some confidence is that measles mortality would eventually have dropped to such a low level if there were no vaccines – all else being equal.

So what is the position after 1999?  If the introduction of the vaccines had any effect that effect would be to accelerate the fall which already existed – but as can be seen – we do not appear to see that clearly from the trend for the period to 1999 compared to the trend for the period to 1967.

Here is Health Protection Agency data covering the period from 1948 to 2008.  This data plotted identically shows exactly the same thing as the 1901-1999 and 1901-1967 data with one difference:

[CLICK ON GRAPH TO ENLARGE IN NEW TAB/WINDOW].

<big>Measles Deaths 1948-2008 Source Health Protection Agency UK

The trendline for the HPA data drops below a chance of 1 in 55 million by 2000.  This is not like the 1999 data in the other graph which does this by 2007.  So on a very simple approach that might be interpreted as indicating the vaccine might have had some effect in accelerating a reduction in what is admittedly an already very low and continuing to fall rate of mortality. That of course might not necessarily be the case but it can at least be a working hypothesis.

It is of course impossible to prepare a logarithmic graph with zero values [there is no zero for a log graph].  For years which the HPA data had zero deaths it was necessary to substitute a value to plot logarithmically.  0.1 was used for this purpose.

With mortality as low as it was in the 1980s, one question which this data does raise therefore is whether it would be better for public health to have had an effective treatment for measles instead of or in addition to mass vaccination programmes – say like a measles pill. 

It looks an attractive proposition, potentially taking away the problem of mass population disease control and providing a means to save third world lives.  Third world children die despite the existence of vaccines and there is no effective treatment to save their lives.  So western nations have been extremely selfish in failing to address that omission.

What we must always bear in mind when considering graphs of this kind which do not rely on reported cases – incidence – is that reported cases prior to 1994 in the UK are wholly unreliable as an indication of true levels of incidence of a disease.  Doctors over-diagnose and have over-diagnosed measles by 74 times – for every real case there can and have been 73 non measles cases reported as measles: the data supporting this is set out here – Vaccines Did Not Save Us – 2 Centuries Of Official Statistics

In times of panic especially any rash might be reported as suspected measles and that is likely to be happening now in South Wales, UK.

Putting it simply this graph shows the rate of decline of mortality prior to 1968 and what might be the position after 1967 if things carried on as they were.

Science Illiterates, Quackbuster & “Skeptic” Thugs and Bullies Get Kicking “Down-Under”

The anti-safety vaccine lobby galloping in red tunics and full cry with hounds let loose and running blind fell off the precipice and crashed into a bloodied pile in the deep Gorge of Stupidity down under in Australia.  You can read about it here: Will the real Australian sceptics please step forward?

Yep, the mixed bag of various cranks and the kinds of nutters who follow the seemingly mathematically challenged “scientist” Dr David “Orac” Gorski did what they are best at.

Unhappy about Ms Meryl Dorey’s excellent work in Australia telling people the truth about how ineffective and unsafe vaccines can be for children and others, they started a legal case to attack her new venture “The Real Australian Sceptics“. 

They claimed “Australian Skeptics” was their trademark [and so ignorant they even cannot spell “sceptic”] but just like their spelling failed to take into account what a trademark is and that they don’t have one.  In a remarkable piece of “dumb-assed” cussedness they got themselves and their legal case trashed comprehensively.

Clearly one must be sceptical about “skeptics” [and probably a whole lot more than just that].

And is “thugs and bullies” an appropriate term?  The Bolen Report spelt that out in technicolour recently. 

You can read about it here: Australian Skeptics Dragged into Court over Rape, Mutilation,  and Death Threats Against the Australian Vaccination Network Leadership… Opinion by Consumer Advocate  Tim Bolen  Sunday, October 14th,  2012.

Such nice people.

Bill Gates Polio Eradication Plans – To Cause The Polio Equivalent of 235 Years of Cases Of A Twice As Deadly Disease

Bill Gates outlined his plans for polio eradication on the UK’s BBC television last night as the invited guest to deliver the annual Richard Dimbleby lecture.  Instead of feting Gates, the BBC’s journalists should have been spelling out what Bill Gates’s plans mean and the concern the aim of polio eradication is impossible in any event. 

In 2006 Science ran articles reporting how experts involved in attempted eradication had become highly skeptical about and doubted the ability ever to eradicate polio: Polio eradication: is it time to give up? Science May 12, 2006 Roberts, Leslie

But Gates ploughs on regardless whilst his plans will result in causing thousands of cases of a twice as deadly indistinguishable disease, called non polio accute flaccid paralysis [NPAFP].  This will be the result of the especially intensive vaccination campaigns which it seems will continue until not one case of polio is reported: New Paper – Polio Vaccine – Disease Caused by Vaccine Twice As Fatal – Polio Eradication Impossible

To get an idea of the figures take the 47,500 NPAFP cases just in India against the 205 cases total worldwide of polio.  Bill Gates wants to cause the current NPAFP equivalent of 235 years of polio cases but for a disease, NPAFP which is twice as fatal as polio.  Third world children and their families will pay the price with Bill tucked up comfortably in Seattle USA with his billions.

And last night the BBC were sucking up big-time to the world’s second richest man when what Gates’ plans mean and why he is really doing this deserves full investigation and reporting.  Clearly, the BBC’s independence and reputation for reliable reporting is no more and long gone.

W.H.O. AND OTHER EXPERTS BELIEVE POLIO ERADICATION IMPOSSIBLE

The polio vaccination campaign experts who believe eradication impossible include Isao Arita, a WHO expert from Japan, Donald A. Henderson, the director of the smallpox program, polio expert Konstantin Chumakov of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Vadim Agol of the Russian Academy of Medical Science’s Chumakov Institute for Poliomyelitis. Arita in 1990 started directing the polio eradication campaign in the Western Pacific in 1997 and who predicated his faith in medicine’s ability to triumph over viruses.

Dr Puliyel’s paper implies that polio eradication is impossible because an artificial virus from a lab could leak out and circulate: New Paper – Polio Vaccine – Disease Caused by Vaccine Twice As Fatal – Polio Eradication Impossible

Whilst such leaks are possible and have happened with other viruses, there are other issues about man-made polio viruses affecting the feasibility of eradication and the continued circulation of the polio virus. Leaks from a laboratory of an artificial virus are not the main or only issue affecting the feasibility of polio eradication.

Additionally, we do not know how much polio virus there is in silent circulation – with asymptomatic non clinical cases.

In other words, the virus may never be eliminated – we do not see the clinical cases. The only cases of polio which are reported are paralytic ones – the reporting system is for paralytic polio cases – cases where paralysis is clearly evident – and very short temporary paralysis cases where the individual rapidly recovers may never be noted as polio or reported.

…. the confirmation in 2000 that vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) can circulate and cause polio outbreaks, making the use of OPV after interruption of wild poliovirus transmission incompatible with a polio-free world. A comprehensive strategy has been developed to minimize the risks …. appropriate long-term biocontainment of poliovirus stocks (whether for vaccine production, diagnosis, or research), the controlled reintroduction of any live poliovirus vaccine (i.e., from an OPV stockpile), and appropriate use of the inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV). ….. there is wide agreement that no strategy would entirely eliminate the potential risks to a polio-free world.

Aylward et al, Risk Management in a Polio-Free World, Risk Analysis, Vol. 26, No. 6, 2006. ]

Was Polio the Problem In the First Place

We cannot be sure now whether the paralysis cases of the 1940s and 1950s pandemics were caused by polio virus. In other words, is the elimination of a polio virus relevant to eliminating childhood paralysis cases at all? This is an issue which was being discussed in the 1950s and still appears to be a live issue: “The history of the etiology of poliomyelitis is a history of errors.” J.F. Eggers, Medicine, 1954:

If Not Poliovirus, Then What Is Causing Today’s Cases of Flaccid Paralysis?

Will The Poliovirus Eradication Program Rid the World of Childhood Paralysis? With So Little Poliovirus Detected Around the World, What Is Causing Today’s Outbreaks of Acute Flaccid Paralysis? By Neenyah Ostrom April 20, 2001

The “slow” explosive rise and peaks of the graphs of the supposed 1940s & 50s polio pandemics covering a 20 year period do not fit the known pattern of other infectious diseases – compare the graphs shown here: Vaccines Did Not Save Us – 2 Centuries of Official Statistics

… with this from the US CDC:

Additionally, a number of the first vaccination campaigns of the vaccine era are associated with increases in childhood paralysis including diphtheria and pertussis [whooping cough] campaigns; Pertussis Vaccination and Serious Central Nervous System Disorders: Early Case Series Evidence and Public Reaction

[BLUE TEXT ADDED 30 JAN 2012]